Cbanker: Russian ruble grows thanks to foreign trade in Jan–Mar

MOSCOW, Apr 13 (PRIME) – Ruble strengthening in January–March was supported by an inflow of foreign trade revenue to Russia, while carry trade operations influenced the rate at a lesser extent, Central Bank First Deputy Chairwoman Ksenia Yudayeva said on Thursday during a forum.

“The major inflow of foreign currency took place in the first quarter of this year thanks to the current account, which amounted to U.S. $22.8 billion. A net private capital outflow of $15.4 billion in the first quarter is a mirror reflection of that inflow to a large extent,” she said.

Russian banks that received export revenue placed it in the form of foreign assets mainly on deposits of correspondent banks. “That is why the strengthening of the ruble that we saw in the first quarter of 2017 is based on the inflow of foreign currency through external trade in the first place, and it was connected with other factors to a significantly lesser degree, including the factor of carry trade operations,” Yudayeva said.

She also said that oil prices may fall to $40–45 per barrel in the short- and medium-term, in line with the baseline development scenario of the central bank.

“Coordinated actions of OPEC and other oil producers produced a more balanced market, and oil prices grew. Moreover, oil prices have settled within a rather wide range over the past several quarters. This provides more stability from the point of view of long-term trends. Still, the variety of possible scenarios is too high,” she said.

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